Spike substitution T813S increases Sarbecovirus fusogenicity by enhancing the usage of TMPRSS2.

SARS-CoV Spike (S) protein shares considerable homology with SARS-CoV-2 S, especially in the conserved S2 subunit (S2). S protein mediates coronavirus receptor binding and membrane fusion, and the latter activity can greatly influence coronavirus infection. We observed that SARS-CoV S is less effective in inducing membrane fusion compared with SARS-CoV-2 S. We identify that S813T mutation is sufficient in S2 interfering with the cleavage of SARS-CoV-2 S by TMPRSS2, reducing spike fusogenicity and pseudoparticle entry. Conversely, the mutation of T813S in SARS-CoV S increased fusion ability and viral replication. Our data suggested that residue 813 in the S was critical for the proteolytic activation, and the change from threonine to serine at 813 position might be an evolutionary feature adopted by SARS-2-related viruses. This finding deepened the understanding of Spike fusogenicity and could provide a new perspective for exploring Sarbecovirus' evolution.

Estimating the Effects of Public Health Measures by SEIR(MH) Model of COVID-19 Epidemic in Local Geographic Areas.

The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020-21 has been a major challenge to public health systems worldwide. Mathematical models of epidemic are useful tools for assessment of the situation and for providing decision-making support for relevant authorities. We developed and implemented SEIR(MH) model that extends the conventional SEIR model with parameters that define public lockdown (the level and start of lockdown) and the medical system capacity to contain patients. Comparative modeling of four regions in Europe that have similar population sizes and age structures, but different public health systems, was performed: Baden-Württemberg, Lombardy, Belgium, and Switzerland. Modeling suggests that the most effective measure for controlling epidemic is early lockdown (exponential effect), followed by the number of available hospital beds (linear effect if the capacity is insufficient, with diminishing returns when the capacity is sufficient). Dynamic management of lockdown levels is likely to produce better outcomes than strict lockdown.

SAS: A Platform of Spike Antigenicity for SARS-CoV-2.

Since the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2, antigenicity concerns continue to linger with emerging mutants. As recent variants have shown decreased reactivity to previously determined monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) or sera, monitoring the antigenicity change of circulating mutants is urgently needed for vaccine effectiveness. Currently, antigenic comparison is mainly carried out by immuno-binding assays. Yet, an online predicting system is highly desirable to complement the targeted experimental tests from the perspective of time and cost. Here, we provided a platform of SAS (Spike protein Antigenicity for SARS-CoV-2), enabling predicting the resistant effect of emerging variants and the dynamic coverage of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among circulating strains. When being compared to experimental results, SAS prediction obtained the consistency of 100% on 8 mAb-binding tests with detailed epitope covering mutational sites, and 80.3% on 223 anti-serum tests. Moreover, on the latest South Africa escaping strain (B.1.351), SAS predicted a significant resistance to reference strain at multiple mutated epitopes, agreeing well with the vaccine evaluation results. SAS enables auto-updating from GISAID, and the current version collects 867K GISAID strains, 15.4K unique spike (S) variants, and 28 validated and predicted epitope regions that include 339 antigenic sites. Together with the targeted immune-binding experiments, SAS may be helpful to reduce the experimental searching space, indicate the emergence and expansion of antigenic variants, and suggest the dynamic coverage of representative mAbs/vaccines among the latest circulating strains. SAS can be accessed at https://www.biosino.org/sas.

Antigenic Evolution on a Global Scale Reveals the Potential Natural Selection of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus 2 by Pre-existing Cross-Reactive T-Cell Immunity.

The mutation pattern of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has changed constantly during worldwide community transmission of this virus. However, the reasons for the changes in mutation patterns are still unclear. Accordingly, in this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of over 300 million peptides derived from 13,432 SARS-CoV-2 strains harboring 4,420 amino acid mutations to analyze the potential selective pressure of the host immune system and reveal the driver of mutations in circulating SARS-CoV-2 isolates. The results showed that the nonstructural protein ORF1ab and the structural protein Spike were most susceptible to mutations. Furthermore, mutations in cross-reactive T-cell epitopes between SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal human coronavirus may help SARS-CoV-2 to escape cellular immunity under long-term and large-scale community transmission. Additionally, through homology modeling and protein docking, mutations in Spike protein may enhance the ability of SARS-CoV-2 to invade host cells and escape antibody-mediated B-cell immunity. Our research provided insights into the potential mutation patterns of SARS-CoV-2 under natural selection, improved our understanding of the evolution of the virus, and established important guidance for potential vaccine design.